RCQ NBA TOTALS
Model v1.3 — Signal Performance Tracker
2025–26 Season
Jan 18 — Apr 15, 2026 • Updated Apr 16
Total Signals
705
Graded bets • 15 pending
Win Rate
47.0%
331W — 374L — 0P
Net P&L
−71.7u
−10.2% ROI on flat 1u
Avg Margin
−1.2pts
vs opening line
Cumulative P&L
Side Split
Over
−52.1u
152W – 191L (44.3%)
Under
−19.6u
179W – 183L (49.4%)
Book Split
DraftKings
−51.1u
179W – 215L (45.4%)
FanDuel
−20.6u
152W – 159L (48.9%)
Milestones
Best Day
+6.13u
Jan 22
Worst Day
−13.21u
Apr 12
Weekly Performance
Recent Signals (Last 25)
| Date | Matchup | Side | Line | Total | Result | P&L |
|---|
RC QUANTUM AUTOMATION
RCQ NBA Totals Model v1.3 • All bets tracked at 1 unit flat
705 graded signals • 15 pending • Updated Apr 16, 2026
Where signals fail — diagnostic breakdown
Win Rate by Side
Over signals44.3%
Under signals49.4%
Overs account for 73% of losses by P&L. The model systematically overestimates scoring, though the gap has narrowed in April.
Win Rate by Line Range
<22042.7%
220–22440.6%
225–22947.3%
230–23451.4%
235–23955.3%
240+42.6%
235–239 remains the strongest bucket. 230–234 turned profitable after April. Low totals (<225) still worst.
Over Signals by Line Range
Low (<222)46.2%+1.8 margin
Mid (222–230)43.3%−1.3 margin
High (230+)42.5%−6.2 margin
Overs on high totals still losing: −6.2 pts avg miss. Margins improved vs prior update as April pace adjusted.
Under Signals by Line Range
Low (<225)36.8%−6.0 margin
Mid (225–235)49.1%−0.9 margin
High (235+)53.0%−1.8 margin
Unders on high-total games remain the edge. Low-total unders still a disaster — trapping into slow pace games that still go over.
Day-of-Week Performance
Thursday58.2%
Tuesday54.6%
Friday52.3%
Wednesday42.1%
Sunday41.5%
Monday40.0%
Saturday38.1%
Tue/Thu/Fri all profitable. Mon/Sat/Sun still bleeding. Midweek slates clearly where the edge lives.
Blowout Loss Analysis
Over: losses by 10+ pts98 bets (26% of L)
Under: losses by 10+ pts121 bets (32% of L)
Close losses (0–3 pts)54 total
Close wins (0–3 pts)53 total
219 blowout losses vs 54 close losses. The model is frequently way off on game environments, not just losing on margins.
Exploitable Edge — 235–239 Under Sweet Spot
Under signals (235–239)57W–40L (58.8%)
Over signals (235–239)0W–6L (0.0%)
The sustained edge. 97 under signals in this range show a clear 58.8% hit rate — the model's cleanest profitable segment.
Signal Volume vs Performance
1–4 signals/day47.1%10 days
5–8 signals/day38.7%28 days
9–14 signals/day49.9%32 days
15+ signals/day51.4%6 days
High-volume days (15+) outperform. Mid-volume days (5–8) are clearly the worst — likely forced/marginal signals.
Monthly Trend
January44.4%n=99
February47.3%n=182
March45.5%n=277
April51.0%n=147
April is the first profitable month (51.0%). Clear upward trend suggesting model recalibration is taking hold late-season.
RC QUANTUM AUTOMATION
RCQ NBA Totals Model v1.3 • Diagnostic Analysis • 705 graded signals